More on the Trade War (and War in General)
Published at 10:38 on 31 August 2026
My last post on this subject was titled “So It’s a Trade War… for Now;” I included those last two words for a reason. Trump is an agent of chaos and one of the attributes of the chaos he creates is instability and rapid change.
There is right now a lot of obsessing in Canadian media of Canada being in it for the long haul. In one sense, that is probably correct; the old world doesn’t exist any more. But the rhetoric tends to be simplistic and assume that means the USA and Canada will never ink another trade deal, at least not anytime soon.
On that I disagree, and I happen to land with California governor and likely primary presidential candidate Gavin Newsom. It is indeed highly likely Trump will TACO and negotiations will restart. Heck, for all we know negotiations may currently be going on right now, via back channels and out of the limelight.
Not only would it be absolutely like Trump for this sort of course change to happen, trade relations are like a large ship: it is simply not possible to nimbly execute a major course change. The USA and Canada are, like it or not, basically stuck trading with each other for the foreseeable future.
Trump will, of course, paint it as anything but a TACO. He will strut around and boast how it is the greatest and best trade agreement ever, and it was so all as a result of his genius. All the sturm und drang was just his mastery of four-dimensional political chess that you, as a mere common human being, are unable to perceive.
Carney will, of course, bite his tongue go along with it, because he cannot stop Trump being Trump, and (all other things being equal) a trade deal with the USA beats no deal with the USA.
In the long run, however, don’t expect the deal to last super-long. It will last for a while, then the USA will reveal that it was signed in pencil all along. Then there will be another trade war until another deal is hashed out. Rinse, lather, repeat. Again, the old pre-Trump world doesn’t exist any more.
As this process goes on, Canada should focus on gradually (it will have to be gradual, see above) steering the ship of trade policy in particular and policy in general to a different course.
Critical on the above is Canada getting serious about national defence. History has shown that when a more powerful nation starts making persistent noise about annexing a less-powerful neighbour, it is something best taken very seriously. Things like this need to be actualized, and need to be merely a start. It needs to be demonstrated, via the creation of undeniable facts on the ground, that any invasion of Canada will likely be difficult, prolonged, unpleasant, and bloody.
As for military war, so for trade war. Going forward, USA is going to be more of a bully than ever, and the best way to deal with a bully is to show strength and resolve. (Whatever trade deal Carney cuts with Trump, it will almost certainly be significantly better than if he had just caved and made the concessions Trump wanted.)
We are at one of those times in history where the best way to ensure peace is to prepare for war (trade and otherwise).