Blackcap Blog

Published at 11:29 on 6 February 2025

Ironically, this is something which could be created by disbelieving in it.

Assume a widespread disbelief in the relevance of the Democratic Party, accompanied by a widespread rejection of Trump. Then, the most likely result is the pursuit of change outside the auspices of the Democratic Party.

Since the Party is, in fact, incompetent almost to the point of irrelevance, this would make the resistance more effective than one which pursues mainly in-Party strategies.

Now, while the Democrats are incompetent, they are also the lesser half of a two-party duopoly. This is part of the reason for their incompetence, in fact; the duopoly insulates the Democrats from the normal forces of ideological competition.

The same duopoly also makes it extremely difficult for any sort of new movement to gain true, effective party status. (The latter has happened only once in U.S. history, when abolitionists created the Republican Party.) The natural outcome, borne of Democratic Party opportunism and oppositional frustration, is some sort of merger of the new opposition with the old Democratic Party. This could then make the post-merger Democratic Party more relevant.

By contrast, a widespread continuation of belief in the Democrats’ relevance is likely to enable them to coast along in their current ineptitude, protected by the duopoly, as they evolve into an opposition in name only that serves mainly to legitimize a fascist state run by a Republican Party that dominates virtually all aspects of the political process.

Whichever option is chosen will, in other words, be a self-falsifying prophecy.