Blackcap Blog

Published at 15:58 on 22 August 2026

So far as I can determine, these are the main rules of Democratic Party primary politics, according to that party’s ruling gerontocracy:

1. If a left candidate runs as an independent or in a third party, the left is at fault for splitting the electorate in the general.
2. If a left candidate runs within the Democratic Party via the primary process, the left is at fault for attempting a hostile takeover of the Democratic Party.
3. If a centrist candidate prevails in the primary but fails because of a lack of support from the left in the general, the left is at fault for failing to support the party’s candidate.
4. If a leftist candidate prevails in the primary but fails because of a lack of support from the centre in the general, the left is at fault for fielding a candidate with insufficient centrist appeal.

Published at 21:51 on 21 August 2026

This is Trump we are talking about negotiating with, so none of this is a surprise. And it also won’t be a surprise if, in a week or three, Trump goes into TACO mode, suddenly becomes a lot more reasonable, and a deal gets made after all.

Also, if Trump is being unreasonable (and I have no reason to doubt Carney’s assertion that he was), the best way to deal with it is the best way to deal with any bully: by showing strength. Whatever the short-run costs of that strategy will be, they will pale in comparison to the long-term costs of failing to show strength.

Published at 22:00 on 8 August 2026

Can’t really call it a “road trip” because a lot of ferry segments were involved. Per which, I learned about this site, which I found extremely useful when all sailings of interest were fully booked. I simply entered the list of timings and routes which were suitable, and within five minutes got texted that someone had cancelled their reservation on one, meaning it was now up for grabs.

I also managed to get in a full tour of one of the many limestone caves on Vancouver Island. This is something I have been wanting to do ever since learning some years ago that there were limestone caves on the Island. Riverbend Cave is not a particularly large cave, nor are its formations world-class, but what I found noteworthy was the great variety of them (this one cave contains most of the classic formation types, including some rare ones like boxwork and unusual ones like helictites). Plus it is a wild cave (no lighting or tourist trails), so you get a more authentic caving experience. There is sadly, as is often the case, some vandalism in the parts of the cave closest to the mouth, but after the first serious crawlway, everything is mostly intact, including a fair number of very nice soda straws. Finally, the limestone itself the cave is formed in is unusually attractive, with the appearance of a veined marble in many places.

Published at 08:41 on 25 July 2026

Back in 2021, I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations about the excess COVID-19 death rate in the USA, compared to Canada. I came to the conclusion that it was around 60%, at the time around 380,000 Americans.

Given that most of that was caused by conspiracy-mongering aided and abetted by Trump fascists, it seems fair to give them the credit for the deaths. Similar logic is used to add numbers to Stalin’s and Mao’s death counts, after all. They are so high not because either dictator directly and deliberately ordered the execution of so many victims, but because of policy choices (primarily agricultural policy) that led to such deaths more indirectly (via famine). Almost nobody gripes about this accounting being unfair to Stalin or Mao.

Anyhow, now that the pandemic has settled down into a routine global endemic disease situation, similar to colds and flu, I figured a retrospective was in order.

The data are here and a quick look shows that although the raw numbers are higher, the basic ratio is almost exactly the same: roughly 60% of the deaths in the USA are excess deaths compared to Canada. That ends up raising Trump’s COVID body count to around 740,000.

Published at 09:03 on 17 July 2026

While nobody can predict the future with absolute certainty, I will just say that this, this, and this all dovetail perfectly with my earlier prediction that a) the Trump fascists will try to steal the coming election, and b) have far more success at doing so than many presently realize.

Published at 09:44 on 14 July 2026

Graham Platner Was the Perfect Twitter Candidate (via Slate)

Published at 08:29 on 10 July 2026

They suck because a) they are free, and b) there is no easy way to cancel. So what happens is that people who think they might want to go make reservations well in advance, just in case, and then often become no-shows as their plans change. Why shouldn’t they? There’s no real downside… for them, that is.

The downside comes for the rest of us who like to embrace the moment. Yesterday, there were no all-day parking reservations available, despite the parking lot looking like this:

And that exercise in bureaucratic stupidity settles it: from now on, I forget about Buntzen Lake and continue past practice of just going to nearby Sasamat Lake (which has more sensible policies, and has a shuttle bus from the nearest SkyTrain station) instead.

A more reasonable situation would be paid but fully refundable reservations. Charge, say, $10 to make a reservation, then refund the $10 if you either explicitly cancel or if you show up. No-shows lose $10. The park remains free, overcrowding remains controlled, and those who make reservations have an incentive to cancel them and open up their slots to people who show up same-day.

Published at 08:01 on 10 July 2026

Originally, Zionism (and related words like Zionist) pertained simply to support for some sort of Jewish state somewhere (not necessarily even in the Middle East). Support a Jewish state in Argentina or Alaska? You’re a Zionist. Support a Jewish state alongside a Palestinian one? You’re a Zionist. Support Israel being compelled to give back the lands it occupied post-1967, but there still being an Israel? Still a Zionist.

Things seem to be changing. From a recent poll of Jews in Milwaukee:

The survey, released last week by the Milwaukee Jewish Federation, found that 43% of Jewish adults said they identified as Zionist, while 42% said they did not. A much higher share — 69% — said they feel somewhat or very “emotionally attached to Israel.” At the same time, 52% of respondents agreed that “Israel regularly violates the human rights of the Palestinian people.”

This is, I think, something to keep in mind when one hears explicitly anti-“Zionist” rhetoric in the Palestine solidarity movement and on the Left generally.

Published at 10:56 on 7 July 2026

Told You So

Just take a trip down memory lane to last October. Even my most recent, more positive assessment of the guy (who wasn’t my first choice but I don’t choose the candidate, Maine voters do) mentioned the possibility of there being “more skeletons in his closet.” It was not precisely a difficult call.

He Can’t Win

There’s been pretty credible accusations of sexual assault against him before that for some reason were overlooked by voters. The latest news, which pretty much unequivocally describes a rape, is apparently too much. There’s been a huge wave of former supporters denouncing him and asking him to drop out.

If he drops out, of course he can’t win. If he stays in (and he’s self-centred enough that he just might), he also can’t win. Collins will survive another term.

The Democrats Can’t Win That Seat

Suppose he drops out. Then what? The law says the party gets to choose his replacement. Which probably means they pick Mills. She’s who they wanted in the first place, and she got around 20% in the primary (finishing second after Platner) despite having suspended her campaign.

Suppose they don’t pick Mills. They will pick someone equally uninspiring. This is the Democratic Party establishment we are talking about, after all.

Finally, even if, by some miracle, the party elite manages to pick an actually good candidate, it probably won’t matter. This whole fiasco has irreparably damaged their brand in this race.

This Is Not the Establishment’s Fault

It’s the progressives’ fault. It was the Left that fell in love with Platner, piled the endorsements on him, and kept the endorsements even when the skeletons in his closet started coming to light. There were other candidates in the primary besides Platner and Mills. At least one of them was a progressive. Could have (and should have) backed someone else.

This whole situation is the converse of the recent NYC mayoral race. Then, it was the Establishment who damaged their own cause by backing flawed candidates like Cuomo and Adams. Just like there were better progressive candidates in the Maine primary, there were better establishment ones in the NYC primary.

It was wrong for the Establishment to blame the Left then, and it is wrong for the Left to blame the Establishment now.

It’s Not Fair, but It Doesn’t Matter

Yes, it’s not fair that the Establishment gets to bat last on this one by nominating Platner’s replacement, should he drop out. Well, boo hoo hoo. Life isn’t fair. Part of being an insurgent movement challenging the status quo is by definition the fact that you don’t get the status quo advantages. Your job is to win despite that. If you can’t, you are not up to your historic mission.

The solution is to choose better candidates, ones that don’t self-immolate like this one just did. Pick a Mamdani next time, not a Platner.

Published at 09:32 on 6 July 2026

Almost exactly a year ago, I wrote: “Unless … I encounter a use case that justifies my investment in an ebook reader with a sure-thing, short payback period, ebooks just don’t seem to make much sense to me.”

Well, use case found: technical floras. I have found ones for both British Columbia (where I live) and New Mexico (where I visit periodically) downloadable for free online. These are real static files, with all the rights of ownership. Of course, being available for free, I can’t expect to sell them for money, but who cares. The main thing is that someone can’t set a record in a database somewhere and make my books vanish from my reader.

The print version of even a single such flora costs over twice what basic ebook reader costs, so such a device pays for itself basically immediately. Sure, there’s a good chance the reader will be dead in about a decade, making me replace it, but even then, the cost disparity makes buying two readers justifiable. By then, we’re getting to around twenty years, by which time a) it’s likely I won’t be going on long hikes anymore due to my advanced age, and b) the floras I have will be obsolete anyhow, due to nomenclature changes.

A further bonus is weight and bulk: an ebook reader is lighter than even a condensed, single-volume version of a technical flora, and the two above are only available in their full-size, multivolume versions. That’s really important for something I want to take along on hikes.