How Long Will Trump Last?

Published at 09:46 on 31 August 2025

Tom Nichols, normally a cautious voice about such speculations, thinks it may not be long.

But really, we don’t know. This is the least transparent presidency in history. We know that Trump is old (the oldest man to ever take the presidential oath of office). We know that he’s not as healthy as he once was.

But he has access to the best health care money and power can buy. The absolute best. Even those with lesser access can linger in an old and frail state for surprisingly long. So there is really no way to tell.

The one thing I can say is that I doubt he will live to serve out the full four years of his term. Beyond that, I cannot say much. The obituary may come this afternoon, or it may not come for several more years.

MSR Dragonfly Shut-Down Trick

Published at 19:49 on 26 August 2025

I believe I read this long ago, before I purchased a Dragonfly. Then I forgot about it.

Anyhow, one of the annoyances with the Dragonfly is, no matter how much you let it burn down, it always seems to dribble a little fuel when you take it apart.

Then I realized that in the instructions for their similarly-designed liquid fuel stoves, Optimus tells you that when shutting the stove down, the first thing you should do is flip the bottle over. Then you wait for the flame to die (which takes about a minute but which happens real suddenly when it does). Then wait for the hissing to cease. Then, and only then, turn off the valves and disassemble. (Optimus even labels the fuel connectors for their bottles with “on” and “off” to indicate which orientation does what.)

What flipping the bottle over does is cause the dip tube that is normally on the bottom edge of the fuel bottle to be on its top edge instead. Instead of admitting fuel, it now admits pressurized air. This air then purges the fuel line.

And, despite the MSR instructions being silent about this trick, it works. Of course it does. MSR’s stoves have the same basic design.

No more dribbles!

MSR Dragonfly Redux

Published at 09:00 on 21 August 2025

I have had one since 2021 so I guess an experience-based update is past due.

Executive summary: High-end stove with high-end performance at a high-end price.

I have yet to take it bikepacking or backpacking (although I expect that to change fairly soon), but I have used it a lot during strict fire bans, thanks to its CSA certification. Otherwise, I typically continue using my vintage Coleman 425E two-burner “suitcase” stove, simply because having a second burner can be a real plus at times.

That Coleman stove works well in the cold and well in the wind, but the Dragonfly still has it beat on both aspects.

The Coleman can be a bit fiddly to light when the temperature is below about 5˚C. (And yes, I sometimes camp in such chilly weather.) The Dragonfly is just rock-solid. It doesn’t matter how cold it is, it primes as easily as it does on a summer afternoon.

Likewise, although I have always been impressed by how well the Coleman stove works on windy days, the Dragonfly just does better yet.

None of this should be a surprise. The MSR stoves, particularly their liquid fuel ones, were designed for mountaineering use in extreme conditions.

Quality often comes with a price, and that is no exception here. I think I paid close to CAD $200 for mine in 2021, and a quick check shows the current price to be in the CAD $250–350 range (yes, it varies that much, which shows how much it pays to comparison shop). Even at the lower end of that range, I would not blame people for thinking twice.

I would, however, caution against saving money buy buying a Chinese white gas stove (there are a number of such models for sale online), unless I could be certain it has a valid safety certification from the UL or CSA. There is simply too much unsafe crap from China being sold online.

Instead, try to find a used, late-model MSR or other name brand stove (Optimus is another well-established brand). A quick check on eBay shows it should be possible to get one for about half the price of a new stove. Or, if you don’t live someplace with strict burn bans like I do, a used older stove in good condition.

And yes, it can simmer (something many white gas stoves, which often are designed for boiling water and not much else, have difficulty with).

Bottom line is that the Dragonfly does live up to its reputation for quality, performance, and flame control.

The Motorcycle Diaries and Their Author

Published at 07:55 on 19 August 2025

Ernesto “Che” Guevara’s autobiographical account of his 1952 journey through South America is something I have been wanting to read since seeing the movie based on it about two decades ago. (Talk about procrastination.)

I had been hoping to, in part, gain some insight into Che’s eventual support for authoritarian leftism.

On that latter term, some leftists disagree with it, saying leftism is intrinsically anti-elite and therefore “leftist” regimes like the one in Cuba (which do have a ruling elite) are in fact anti-leftist. I find such arguments unconvincing, because the motives of the authoritarianism in such regimes are different from the motives of it in right-wing authoritarian regimes. One strives to use force to replace capitalism with a more egalitarian system (and tends to not much concerned with preservation of traditional values), the other strives to use force to maintain traditional hierarchies and values.

Trying to overthrow traditional hierarchies on the grounds that they are unjust is classic leftism, therefore I feel the “authoritarian leftism” label is both fair and descriptive. Moreover, it jibes well with conventional terminologies, and I see value in not adopting a rhetoric so divorced from conventional usage as to impede comprehension. It is the mission of the political left to engage with society and to change it, not to retreat into inward-looking subcultures that are mostly irrelevant to the masses.

But I digress. Back to insights into how Guevara became the political force he eventually became. In this respect, I was not disappointed.

The appendix of the book I have contains the translated text a retrospective speech given by Guevara in 1960, in which he claimed “When I started out as a doctor, when I began to study medicine, the majority of the concepts I hold today as a revolutionary were absent from the storehouse of my ideals.”

I disagree with that assessment, or at least I find it highly misleading. The young Guevara does express core sentiments that stayed with him throughout his life, so far as I can see, and while these core sentiments might be outnumbered by his later insights, they stayed with him and profoundly guided him to become what he became.

Namely, it is clear that Guevara did not in any way reject authoritarianism. This became obvious when reading his near-admiration for Pedro Gutiérrez de Valdivia and his “indefatigable thirst to take control of a place where he can exercise total authority” (“Abaca Chile,” “The End of Chile”).

Authoritarianism has been, sadly, part of the scene in Latin America, where nations have, despite the aspirations of many for something better, tended until quite recently to be led by a succession of one strongman after another. Guevara came of age in Argentina under Perón, and writes in his diaries of how, as Argentines, he and Alberto Granado (his travelling companion), were often admired as being from the nation where Perón had won some gains for the working class and the poor.

Many decades ago I read an essay on Guevara that claimed he was, in a sense, a Peronist. At the time, I thought the charge preposterous. Now, I think it has a lot of truth in it. He wasn’t strictly a Peronist (Juan Perón was not a revolutionary and in fact was quite the traditionalist in some aspects), but Guevara did, like Perón, see politics as an exercise in using strongman power to improve the lot of the less fortunate.

To this we can add how Guevara’s personal experiences with liberal democracy as practiced by the USA ranged from somewhat to profoundly unpleasant. First, there was his unplanned stint in Miami at the end of his 1952 journey, in which he got to experience the injustice and hypocrisy of the Jim Crow-era South first-hand.

Even more tragically there was Guatemala, where by a minor miracle (it is always a miracle when left values triumph in a bourgeois society), a leftist, Jacobo Árbenz, won a presidential election and set about reforming Guatemalan society. Árbenz was not a strongman, and did respect civil liberties. The changes happening in Guatemala inspired Guevara, who travelled there to assist the Árbenz government.

But the liberal, democratic values of the Guatemalan revolution didn’t matter. The response of the USA to the democratic, peaceful social revolution Árbenz was trying to create was to sponsor a coup d’etat and overthrow him. Forty long years of bloody repression and civil war followed.

In a world where resistance does not have to be small-l libertarian, in a political culture where pro-liberty values were the exception more than the norm, where a nonviolent revolution that tried to espouse these values till the end had seen them exploited as weaknesses by the forces of superpower imperialism, and where there was a competing superpower holding the promise of leftist revolution with competing values, it is pretty obvious where on the political spectrum Ernesto “Che” Guevara would probably end up.

Which, basically, is where he did end up.

MAS Drops the Ball in Bolivia

Published at 10:45 on 18 August 2025

It was clear back in 2020 that the historic mission of MAS was now to find a way beyond the cult of personality that had grown up around three-term ex-president Evo Morales, and to transition from the party of Evo into a party of ideas.

Well, they didn’t. Part of MAS wanted to move on, part clung stubbornly to the cult of personality, and the party basically disintegrated as a result of compromise not being possible between two such factions. And yesterday, the inevitable happened.

It didn’t help that MAS also failed to find a way forward after its initial (and initially very successful) plan of using nationalized natural gas revenues to drive spending on economic and social development started faltering as a result of declining revenue. A logical next step would have been to turn to Bolivia’s lithium reserves and use those similarly, but that was never done.

Except it wasn’t inevitable. It could have also ended in left authoritarianism, as one MAS faction used force to impose its will on the other (and on Bolivians in general). Well, it could have, but it didn’t, because of the decentralized nature of the Bolivian social revolution, which has always been big part of my admiration for it, made such a thing highly unlikely.

The most likely end result is now a bourgeois democracy led by the Christian Democrats. Freedoms to organize for something better will in all likelihood remain, and when the new government sells Bolivia short to foreign capital, as it inevitably will, there be an opening for new social movements to arise. Hopefully they will learn from the failures of the past.

Despite Bolivia’s growing debts and inflation, the end result of the social revolution that began with the popular uprisings of the early 2000’s has been net positive. There has been significant economic growth, infrastructure development, and improvement in public health in the past 20 years.

No, it didn’t usher in a new era of socialist utopia in which Bolivia rocketed to first-world levels of development and became a worker’s paradise. No serious observer expected this: this is the real world we are talking about, where miracles and utopias do not exist. But it also, contrary to the consensus of Establishment naysayers, did not end in tyranny and economic ruin.

Popular revolution can work, if decentralism is embraced and authoritarianism is resisted.

Sanction the Hell out of Israel

Published at 14:08 on 15 August 2025

Some policy proposals have only lengthy, complex arguments in their favour. This one ie easy.

What Israel has done to Gaza is worse than what Russia has done to Ukraine. If you can’t acknowledge this than it is time to acknowledge that your internal biases might be getting in the way of your ability to perceive obvious facts.

Russia has had the hell sanctioned out of it for what it is doing to Ukraine. And rightly so.

Yes, the two situations are not precisely the same. News flash: no two conflicts ever are. The salient point here is the amount of civilian suffering being imposed, and how the Gazans are indisputably suffering far more than the Ukrainians are.

The conclusion seems inescapable to me. Fairness and proportionality say that it is time to sanction the hell out of Israel.