Blackcap Blog

Published at 09:34 on 20 September 2025

This is, of course, what we know so far, which is constrained by Robinson choosing to exercise his right to remain silent and not answer his interrogators’ questions. As more information becomes available, this is subject to change. I feel compelled to point this out just in case some bad-faith arguer takes it out of its historical context and cites something here at some point in the future when some bit of additional knowledge makes something that follows in need of revision.

No Explicit Statement of Motive

There has not yet been any explicit statement of motive (i.e. manifesto or statement(s) to interrogators) come to light in this thing. The closest we have are private communications between Robinson and his friends and family.

We also might have inscriptions on bullet casings. Both “hey fascist! CATCH!” and “O Bella ciao, Bella ciao, Bella ciao Ciao ciao!” have clear anti-fascist interpretations. The rub is they also appear in video games, and the other two inscriptions Robinson put on bullet casings have no clear political connotations, only online gamer meme ones.

In All Likelihood, However, It Was Political

It’s not that much a stretch to get a political message out of half the inscriptions. It’s not so cut and dried as the Governor of Utah implied, but it’s also a pretty obvious thing to conclude.

So there were five arrow symbols referencing a game move after “hey fascist! CATCH!” That is just as consistent with Robinson being an antifascist with a gamer background as it is with him being merely a gamer with no strong opinion about fascism. (Really, now, I am supposed to find it plausible that no gamer anywhere can have strong political beliefs about anything?)

And, yes, the “bella ciao” inscription refers to a song used in a video game. Well, so what? Lots of video games have been written, and lots of songs have been used in them in total. Ruling out a political meaning behind what is widely acknowledged to be a political folk song just because it happens to be used in a game somewhere strikes me as a weak argument.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly of all, we have Robinson’s own personal circumstances. Somehow he ended up with an MTF transgender roommate and romantic partner. It is likely that this gave Robinson a first hand view of the struggles of transpeople under Trump fascism, and that this inflamed Robinson’s innate sense of fair play.

While it is possible to construct arguments that things are otherwise, it is clear that the vast preponderance of currently-available evidence points to the above being the simplest possible explanation for Robinson doing what he did.

The Advocacy of LGBT Rights Is a Leftist Position

Just consider the first sentence of the Wikipedia definition of left-wing politics: “Left-wing politics is the range of political ideologies that support and seek to achieve social equality and egalitarianism, often in opposition to social hierarchy either as a whole, or of certain social hierarchies.”

In response to a social hierarchy that defines cisgendered heterosexuals to be the only morally acceptable sort of individual, and all others to be morally inferior, LGBT rights seeks to achieve greater social equality and opposes this hierarchy that judges people by their sexual and gender orientations. Clearly a left-wing position.

Since Robinson apparently did what he did because he was motivated by a left-wing political belief, it is fair to characterize what he did as apparently left-wing political terrorism.

Robinson Is Probably Not a Leftist

This is not a contradiction of what I just wrote! One can have a left position on an issue, or even multiple left positions on multiple issues, yet also have right-wing positions (or no strong stance) on many other issues.

Having a few left-wing positions does not in and of itself make one a leftist. A leftist is someone with left-wing positions on the vast preponderance of issues.

In his later years in the Senate, Barry Goldwater staked out a left of centre position on gays and lesbians serving openly in the military, i.e. that they should be able to openly serve, just like any other individual; the social hierarchy that had relegated non-straight people as lesser and incapable of serving was invalid, and ought to be changed. Yet Goldwater remained overall a staunch conservative.

Remember, Robinson wasted at least half the slogans he wrote on bullet casings on apolitical stuff. Would a committed leftist do that? Unlikely.

In particular, we have the “If you read This, you are GAY Lmao” inscription. This uses “gay” as something derisive and worthy of ridicule. Not something a committed leftist would likely do. Certainly not something most any leftist group would endorse.

Finally, a committed leftist would probably want to leave some sort of more formal manifesto behind tying together his left-wing beliefs and how they motivated his action.

Robinson Is Definitely Not Trans

Sorry, Trump fascists. He is a cisgendered, straight, White male from a conservative Mormon family, who lived well away from those big, “dangerous” cities you fear so much.

The Most Plausible Theory

As I wrote above: It is likely that living with a transperson gave Robinson a first hand view of the struggles of transpeople under Trump fascism, and that this inflamed Robinson’s innate sense of fair play. In other words, he self-radicalized in response to his personal lived experience. The organized Left had little to do with it directly.

Yes, Robinson’s MAGA family claim he moved to the left. Well, he did! On the one issue of trans rights, that is (and maybe a few others that we don’t know about).

Mental Illness Is Also Plausible

I tend to think so just because of the generally unfocused and discombobulated nature of what few messages Robinson has left us, plus the impulsiveness of his action, and the oversights in his plan (which aided in his prompt identification and capture). Moreover, his reaction when his family realized he was probably the prime suspect and confronted him is rumoured to have been to threaten suicide.

It’s not just me, either. Suicide while incarcerated pending trial is a thing, and those holding him have the same suspicions. They have placed him on suicide watch and dressed him in a special vest reserved for prisoners judged to be at risk of ending their lives.

And again, this does not invalidate a political motive. It is completely possible to have strong, genuine political beliefs and to be struggling with mental health issues.

Organized Left Not Involved

If Robinson was a member of an organized left-wing group, the most likely response to his proposal to shoot Charlie Kirk would have been to point out it’s not a great idea and to talk him out of it. In the (unlikely) event it was decided otherwise, the group would have reviewed his plans, cautioned him to wear a mask, selected better messages to inscribe on the bullet casings, and prepared a manifesto or press release.

At this stage, evidence of co-conspirators would have doubtless emerged.

None of this has happened, and no evidence has emerged that Robinson was anything other than a lone actor radicalized by anything other than his life experiences. Therefore the most reasonable conclusion is he was just that.

“The Left” Is Not Responsible

Sorry, it’s just not. I had no idea of Robinson’s plans before he put them into action, and neither did any other leftist.

Lack of remorse, celebration, or conflicted feelings at hearing news of a dead fascist on the part of some other leftists does not disprove this.

It’s a lot like when Saddam Hussein met his end. I didn’t like the Iraq War, yet given all that Hussein had did, let’s just say that it was incredibly hard to feel very sorry about what happened to him, despite my general opposition to capital punishment.

Criminalizing Left Politics Will Cause More Violence

Aside from the obvious civil liberties aspects, turning this into an excuse to criminalize left politics is precisely the wrong action from a prevention standpoint. This sort of one-off attack seldom accomplishes much in the way of positive social change. There is knowledge of this on the Left. On top of that, many leftists prefer nonviolent tactics. As I pointed out above, the most likely response of a left group, if Robinson was a member and had proposed shooting Kirk, would be to reject the proposal.

Making it harder for those frustrated by the Trump regime’s policies to oppose them in an organized and aboveground fashion is just going to result in more acts of lone-wolf terrorism, not less.

Just look at where Kirk met his demise. It wasn’t in California or New York or any other left-leaning state with a vibrant left activist scene. It was in Utah, one of the most politically conservative states in the Union.

Something Like This Was Inevitable

Because of course it was: we have in the USA an angry, polarized society with lots of guns in private hands. Just take it from there.

Assassinations (more precisely, attempts at same) are one of the easier forms of political action to take. No need for endless organizing to attract people to your cause. No need for endless committees planning actions. Just a lone guy with a gun and a grudge, that’s all it takes.

As Was the Response to It

Because of course it is. MAGA politics is a form of fascism, and the fascist is always looking for excuses to criminalize non-fascist political thought and actions.

As I wrote last spring:

To sum up: If fascists try to take freedom away, some people will attempt to resist it. The resistance will not be 100% coordinated and optimized. Some elements of it might choose tactics you (or I) disagree with and/or regard as unstrategic. The root problem is, however, not the resistance. It is the fascism.

I don’t know what to do about this other than to point it out. To fall for the whole “the Left provoked fascism” garbage is basically the same thing as a battered wife falling for her abusive husband’s lie that she is forcing him to hit her, and that she needs to try to be a better wife.