Blackcap Blog

Published at 08:49 on 20 June 2025

Short Answer

Who knows? It will depend largely on his whim at the moment, and that is famously unpredictable.

Longer Answer

It is not the definitive “yes” answer that Rick Wilson seems to think it is.

Why? Because Trumpers are not what he thinks they are. Many Republicans warmed to Trump’s willingness to burn it all down in part because they felt betrayed by their own elite, who led the USA into a number of futile “forever wars” in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. Wilson is of course one of that old elite, he hates Trump, and this reality is therefore most unpleasant to him.

So he constructs an alternate reality in which much of the Right just became inexplicably depraved for no good reasons at all. And, conveniently enough, there are plenty of examples of depraved beliefs to back this whole “depraved” narrative up.

I sometimes interact with Trumpers online, and one common narrative they volunteer as to why they are what they are does fall back on these forever wars. It’s why they can so easily wave off all the concerns of the Never Trump crowd (largely dominated by those same neoconservatives who led the USA into those wars).

And keep in mind: this is what has been volunteered to me, repeatedly, for years now. It’s not some new stuff that some echo chamber media voices thought up on the spot just to help them argue “no, we don’t want to get more involved in the Israel/Iran war, trust me.” It really seems to be a genuine motive.

As such, I rate it as highly likely that if Trump does get the USA heavily involved, it will hurt him.

Sure, a lot of his base are fascist follower types who will pivot on a dime and not only argue but actually believe that Big Brother just increased the chocolate rations. A lot. But not all. Some won’t.

And Trump didn’t win by much, so he can’t afford to lose much support. He’s already underwater on most issues in the polls.

Getting the USA directly involved is highly likely to hurt Trump. And Trump might realize that, which reduces the odds that he will. It is revealing that his current line is that he will decide in “two weeks.” That seems to be his stock phrase for kicking the can down the road and often doing nothing at all.

Trump’s only loyalty is to himself. He has no loyalty to anything or anyone else, including Israel and/or Netanyahu.

Anyone giving almost-certain answers on this one is missing some important points.