No Gloating, Please
Published at 10:04 on 6 August 2016
Don’t gloat too much about Trump’s recent free-fall in the polls. While Trump is unlikely to regain the lead, the free-fall (or even the current 15-point spread) is unlikely to persist. The reason for Trump’s free-fall is that Clinton has been mostly keeping her mouth shut while Trump is behaviorally incapable of doing same. Given how both candidates are weak with strong negatives, the best each can do for themself is keep quiet and minimize attention.
But no candidate can keep their mouth shut all the time. In the last few days Clinton opened her mouth and some whoppers about her E-mail server came out. That’s going to have consequences for her.
Plus Trump has really been running his mouth in high gear recently. That’s already wound down a bit. Yes, he’s a gasbag extraordinaire, but even by Trump’s standards the past week has been exceptional (and unlikely to last).
Don’t, however, expect Trump to regain the lead. Clinton actually has a good measure of self-control over what she says. Trump does not. Therefore the overall pattern of Trump doing more to damage his prospects than Clinton does hers will continue.