Published at 09:25 on 19 January 2022
I mean, sure, he runs a disgusting right-wing authoritarian regime. I don’t like Putin either. Check.
That formality dispensed with, why wouldn’t Putin threaten Ukraine? It’s a far weaker power, so Russia can get away with it.
Russia is unlikely to invade all of Ukraine, for the simple matter that doing so would be taking a bite of something way too big to chew. There would be resistance. Russia might well be able to eventually prevail over it, but it would take a major effort. It would not be a convenient little war.
So Russia is more likely to whittle off yet another chunk of Ukraine by force. Russia already forcibly annexed Crimea, and got away with it. And Russia would likely get away with whittling off another chunk.
NATO members are likely to be upset about it, but the level of upset will not rise to the level where anyone is willing to put the lives of their own troops on the line. This is particularly the case when one realizes how much of a has-been power NATO is.
This is because NATO relies primarily on the USA, and the USA is a seriously compromised nation with an extremely powerful domestic fascist movement with pro-Russia sympathies, a movement poised to almost certainly take power soon. And you better believe that latter fact is entering Putin’s calculus, too.
Published at 20:39 on 6 January 2022
Biden’s much-belated decision to speak forcefully about the coup attempt a year ago is exactly the sort of thing we need more of. Alas, odds strongly disfavor seeing much more of it. Everything I have observed about the Democratic Party points to its almost total uselessness as an institution when it comes to confronting fascism and preserving democracy.
And lo, in the article linked to above, we see the following: “Biden’s remarks do not mark a permanent shift in strategy about how to handle Trump, according to the president’s aides and allies.”
There really is no plausible scenario for the next forty of fifty years except for the USA to become a fascist state much like Portugal under Salazar or Spain under Franco. That will do the historically necessary task of burning the Democratic Party to the ground. Then, eventually, a better generation of Americans, painfully cleansed of the shortcomings that paved way for Trumpist fascism, can rise and burn the Republican Party to the ground, a task even more historically necessary.
Out of all those ashes there will be hope for something better, but only then.
Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong. But all the evidence I see today points to a scenario similar to the above.
Published at 19:18 on 30 November 2021
So, at midnight local time this morning, Barbados became a republic.
If you are in the USA, you are probably unaware of this fact. If you are in Canada, you can’t escape it. The news media are covering this story over and over and over again. It started a few days before the transition, and continues today, on Barbados’ first day as a republic.
This is obviously quite telling, as though there is presently no serious effort to get rid of the monarchy in Canada, the remarkable degree of coverage of what is an aspect of the internal affairs of a tiny island nation shows that many Canadians are obviously thinking about it on some level.
Published at 07:36 on 28 November 2021
New variants are precisely what one would expect in a world were many are left unvaccinated.
The Third World is precisely where most unvaccinated people are, thanks the the rich nations being unable to agree that it would be a net win to weaken (not abolish, merely weaken) intellectual property laws to facilitate more widespread manufacturing of (and lower prices for) vaccines.
That the new variant was detected in Botswana and South Africa is no surprise. Those are two of Africa’s most developed countries. The variant could have easily evolved in a neighboring, less-developed nation, and only been detected when it showed up someplace with the public health infrastructure to readily detect it.
As with the initial spread of the virus, border controls proved inadequate in preventing its spread. The variant was, however, nurtured by nationalism-driven greed: European nations (and the EU are the real bad guys in this one, the Biden Administration has been much more open to sharing the vaccines) valued their business elite’s short-term gains more than any longer-term benefits to humanity of sharing their vaccine technology more freely.
The one border control that would have probably helped is stricter and more-comprehensive testing of travelers. I expect countries to realize this, and institute such restrictions. It is for this reason that I do not expect the planned relaxing of testing requirements at the US/Canada border to last. I will consider myself lucky if the border remains open to non-emergency travel at all.
But it will all be a very poor substitute for the sort of sharing and cooperation that is really needed.
Published at 07:15 on 28 November 2021
Just in the last day, let’s sum up:
- Now that people are looking for it, the Omicron variant is popping up all over the map.
- Most but not all of those infected with it recently traveled to southern Africa; this means that community transmission is already happening worldwide.
- Most of the infected are symptom-free, meaning that they had no reason to suspect they were spreading the infection and therefore were unwittingly doing so.
And remember, this one is more contagious than the old variants (more contagious than even Delta).
The one good bit of news is that the high rate of asymptomatic vaccinated individuals detected means that the vaccinations do seem to offer a significant measure of protection. If the consequences of an infection are so mild that one does not even realize one is infected, the infection is not really a big deal.
The big worry is that it might be serious enough for enough people that it will create another surge in the hospitals as the new variant spreads.
On the personal front, my big worry is that the US/Canada border might slam shut in the next few days, possibly when I’m in the USA loading another batch of my stuff to take north to Vancouver.
Published at 08:25 on 26 November 2021
The new COVID-19 variant is even more virulent than the Delta variant, which in turn was even more virulent than the original one, which was itself shockingly virulent. Remember, the draconian measures that merely slowed down COVID-19 absolutely crushed seasonal colds and flu.
Add that to how the new variant is popping up all over the place in South Africa, one of Africa’s most developed nations (and hence with one of the largest amounts of air travel to the rest of the world), how COVID-19 has a long incubation period in which people are contagious but symptom-free, and how cases of the new variant have been found not only in neighboring Botswana but in Hong Kong, and there really is only one logical conclusion to be reached.
Hence, my headline choice.
Published at 07:25 on 20 November 2021
Since I now have a day job, I don’t have so much time to elaborate on issues during weekdays anymore. So let’s elaborate on the Rittenhouse acquittal today.
Yes, I am aware that self-defense law in Wisconsin makes it easy to acquit people in Rittenhouse’s situation. That in no way refutes anything I wrote in my previous post. It merely helps explain how and why Rittenhouse could be acquitted. The how and why was not what I was discussing. I was discussing the message the acquittal sent, and it sent precisely the message I said it did. If you don’t believe me, listen to the fascists who are so happy about the ruling.
The law that enabled the acquittal helps send the message, in fact. It provides evidence that the acquittal was no fluke, and any fascist in a similar situation to Rittenhouse will probably also be acquitted. The law basically says, “open season on Blacks and the Left, go at it!”
Second, just because the law makes it very easy for a white, right-wing jury to acquit a white, right-wing defendant (in front of what appears to be by all evidence a white, right-wing judge), don’t for a minute think this deference would be extended to a Black or a Leftist who brought a gun to a demonstration and shot someone. If the tables had been turned, if Rittenhouse had been Black, odds are the whole thing wouldn’t have even gone to trial: Rittenhouse would have been pursued by, and shot to death by, the cops in what had been ruled a justified use of force. Literally just about everything in recent US history points to this outcome, and only a fool would deny it.
So yes, it is every bit as bad as I said it was earlier, and none of the standard objections based on Wisconsin self-defense law change that. Sorry.
Published at 18:08 on 19 November 2021
So, if you are white and right-wing, in today’s USA it is literally legal for you to smuggle a weapon across state lines and shoot people with it in cold blood, as long as they are Black or left-wing. Make no mistake, that is the clear message of today’s verdict.
Also make no mistake: the fascists heard that message. They heard it loud and clear. And they will soon start acting on it.
Published at 08:07 on 15 November 2021
Mind you, this is very good news. Whatever I go on to say later, it had to happen, and although it happened late, better late then never.
However, the clock is running out and time is not on the side of the pro-democracy forces. The results in Virginia and New Jersey proved that yes, there are enough stupid and apathetic people that, added to the rough third of the USA that harbors decidedly fascist sentiments, there are plenty enough votes out there to let the fascists back into power.
And once that happens, there will be decisive fascist majorities in Congress and the select committee, as weak and ineffectual as it has been, will be no more. Donald Trump will be Speaker of the House (there is no requirement that the Speaker be an actual member of the House; this is mere tradition), and soon enough, president once more.
This is, of course, not a 100% certainty. It is still theoretically possible for the Democrats to start taking this existential threat to an open society seriously, but odds strongly disfavor it. As I have written before, it is at this stage likely that the whole damn system, both the government and the political culture it exists within, must first burn to the ground before there can be any significant hope of something better emerging.
Published at 06:44 on 3 November 2021
So the Democrats not only lose Virginia, it looks like they might have lost New Jersey as well. It all goes to show just what a disaster their non-strategy of refusing to take the threat of Trumpist fascism really is. As I wrote earlier, inaction speaks louder than words.
It is probably now too late for them to change course. If, that is, they were even capable as a party of realizing a need to change course. We are talking about an organization which won’t recognize that their opponents are fascists even when they try launching a coup to make their guy führer-for-life, after all.
Let’s just say the prognoses for 2022 and 2024 are not optimistic.
