Blackcap Blog

Published at 10:09 on 2 December 2025

I really don’t think there can honestly be debate on these two options any more, not in the context of U.S. politics.

This is for the simple fact that this particular ship has already sailed. It is abundantly clear that the U.S. is already in the midst of a fascist revolution of sorts. The signs of revolutionary change are all over the place:

• Imposing tariffs by fiat.
• Courts, particularly the Supreme Court in its decision that presidents have basically unlimited authority, endorsing a dictatorial presidency.
• Demolishing the East Wing of the White House with no public approval process and no advance notice, for the purpose of clearing the way for a giant ballroom funded by bribe money.
• DOGE making massive, extra-legal changes to the Federal bureaucracy.
• Denying the clear results of the 2020 election, and pardoning those involved in his coup attempt.
• Politically-motivated pardons of corrupt officials.
• ICE —
• Extrajudicial detentions and deportations.
• Ignoring court orders.
• Masked secret agents.
• Routine brutality.
• Denying Representatives and Senators access and oversight.
• Massive funding for more of the same (and worse) approved.
• Politically-motivated retribution against law firms, universities, and news media who act contrary the regime’s wishes.
• The capitalist class mostly falling in line behind the regime.
• Extrajudicial killings on the high seas.
• Refusing to spend duly-appropriated funds.
• Spending funds without proper appropriation.
• Purging military officials judged likely to be insufficiently subservient to the president and any unlawful orders he might issue.

Even many centre-right sources such are now saying it, or seriously implying it: Joe Walsh, Peter Wehner, and The Bulwark to name just three examples.

Yet, despite this, the fascists have not achieved total power. I recently moved this site out of the U.S.A., yes, but that move was anticipatory. There’s plenty of anti-regime material openly circulating in the U.S.A. This would not be the case in a totalitarian society.

It is also clear that Trump is not very popular. That’s just one poll, of course, but it’s a reliable one that has been conducted for decades, and other polls are saying the same thing. Plus you have the electoral backlash at the start of this month, which indicates that the signs in the polls are not just phantoms (and again, that such a backlash can occur is a sign the regime lacks total control).

Where this all goes is unclear. There have been some signs of an independent resistance, but the overall level of it has been nowhere near enough to force the needed changes.

It really seems that most opposed to Trump are pinning their hopes on a big blue wave in 2026 and again in 2028. Even if one is generous and assumes such waves come, an honest assessment will I believe conclude that it is highly unlikely to accomplish that much. This is, after all, the Democratic Party we are talking about (see Rule No. 2). It didn’t accomplish all that much the last time; the Biden years proved to be just a momentary pause in an overall march to fascism. Why should it prove any different the next time?

Yes, there are younger Democrats like A.O.C. who wish to do more, but the party as a whole is still firmly in the hands of an old guard that has proven itself to be more of a willing co-participant than an oppositional force when it comes to the ongoing transition to fascism. A massive none of the above opposition movement could force the Democrats’ hand in a useful way, but again, such a thing does not currently exist.

Until something changes, then, my general prognosis remains pessimistic.