What Would Give Me Hope
Published at 13:09 on 20 June 2024
What would give me hope, in the event of a Trump win, that a transition to fascist rule in the USA is unlikely? I think the answer is best found where I recently wrote that who ultimately prevails will mostly be “a question of which side manages to best triumph over its own internal incompetence.” The answer is, in other words, a question of how the opposition to Trump might manage to best triumph over its own internal incompetence, and how many signs of this appear.
I think the most promising such sign would be the appearance on the scene of what I will term, for lack of a better phrase, a “none of the above” opposition that quickly attracts a large degree of popular support. By “none of the above,” I mean that it won’t be associated (at least not explicitly) with either the Democratic Party establishment, or with the radical Left subculture. Many, perhaps most, involved in it won’t even personally identify as either Democrats or leftists, and neither will most of its initial leadership and/or public figures.
The necessary factors for such a movement appearing will exist, namely:
- Trump’s extremism.
- The self-evident incompetence of existing oppositional actors.
The first will motivate people to oppose Trump, and the second will make them realize that they can’t rely on existing organizations to do the opposing and must therefore create something new and more effective. The question is whether or not the motives will bear the desired fruit.
This also means that the best contingency plan would be to start laying the groundwork for facilitating the appearance of such a movement now.