Palestine Will Be Free

Published at 09:32 on 23 June 2026

There will be a lot of twists and turns on the road leading there, but as of this morning I do not doubt the above statement in the least.

Israel has, as predicted earlier, almost completely destroyed its reputation. This now is even underwater (and continuing to sink further) in the USA, Israel’s chief patron state.

Meanwhile, sympathy for the Palestinians continues to grow. When it gets to the point where a formerly apolitical global travel social media personality is posting stuff like this, I think it is safe to make the sort of game call I just did in the title above.

U.S. Liberals Have No Idea of What’s About to Hit Them

Published at 11:55 on 19 June 2026

Most liberals are positively giddy about Trump’s current low numbers in the opinion polls and what that means for the coming midterms. In doing so, they overlook the reality of the current situation. They overlook the three rules.

The reality is that the immediate results of the coming midterms are likely to consolidate fascist GOP rule more so than to undermine it. Note I didn’t say that the GOP would win the midterms. To focus on the midterms as if they are yet another election, operating under the standard rules of a functioning electoral democracy, and the parties competing in them are normal political parties, is to miss entirely the reality of the situation.

The fascists in power at the Federal level (and many state and local levels) believe elections to be illegitimate unless they win them. This is established fact. To hypothesize that they will for some reason act differently this time is to contravene Rule No. 1. (What just happened to Massie and Cornyn, dear liberals?) There is no better GOP.

When they lose the vote in November (as, in all likelihood, they will), they will not concede defeat. They will claim the results are illegitimate, and will cheat to stay in power. Vote counts in fascist-controlled swing areas will suspiciously change in favour of the fascists in ways that will seem very familiar to anyone with knowledge of how other banana republics operate. Court challenges that threaten the fascists will be slow-walked. Ones that favour the fascists will be given special express treatment. New precedents will be constructed out of whole cloth as needed. The mass media will be subject to politically-motivated persecution if they harp on these issues. In many cases, the persecution will be theoretical and there will be no shortage of compliance in advance.

In response, the Democrats will in general be meek and conciliatory. Because of course they will. Rule No. 2. Sure, there will be some noteworthy exceptions. But the overall pattern, the one that dominates, the one that produces the overall net result, will be as described.

At that point, Rule No. 3 will come into play. Here, the outlook becomes decidedly less bleak. It doesn’t take any belief in a different, better electorate to get Minneapolis-style resistance to fascism. The electorate we actually have has proven itself capable of such resistance. It has also, of course, proven itself capable of acquiescence. So resistance is not a given, but it is definitely plausible.

If Minneapolis-style resistance to fascism erupts nationwide, there is real hope. It could even end up reforming the Democratic Party. Not because of any firm moral principles amongst its leadership, simply because of the principle of political opportunism, the ability to sense which way the political wind is starting to below, the desire to hitch their wagon to a rising star. And that would be fine. It would not be the first time in history a political party claimed for itself and for electoral politics a victory whose roots were in direct action. Demanding that a necessary process happen only for the purest of motives (and via the purest of tactics) is an unrealistic expectation.

Anyhow, that, and not false hopes of both major parties acting contrary to their amply-demonstrated norms of behaviour, is where my hope lies.

Israel, the U.S.A, and the Peace Deal

Published at 09:07 on 18 June 2026

The chattering classes are busily chattering about what a defeat for the USA it all is.

Well of course it is a defeat. That was baked into this thing at the onset: Trump decided to start an asymmetric war in which the asymmetry strongly favoured Iran. Criticisms of the deal, as if a significantly better deal were somehow possible, completely miss the point. A significantly better deal is not possible, sorry. The U.S.A. is now restricted by circumstances to choose between various forms of bad deals.

Why do you think every other post-Carter president had a chance to start a war with Iran but decided to take a pass instead? Yes, this one was that obvious. Any semi-sane, semi-intelligent observer, wherever he or she landed on the political spectrum, could see it. This outcome was as predictable as the sun rising in the morning and the tides ebbing and flooding.

The next thing — which is already starting to dawn on some people — is the start of the end, or at least the restructuring, of the US/Israel special relationship. Again, because of course. The zio-fascists who run Israel want war with Lebanon. Iran does not want Israel making war on Lebanon, and is willing to deny Trump the end of the war he so desperately wants to end in order to accomplish this.

So Israel is now standing in the way of Trump getting what he wants, which means Israel now gets to experience first hand Trump’s famously one-way concept of loyalty: it is your obligation to be endlessly loyal to Trump, who has zero obligation to reciprocate that loyalty. As Trump likes to say: Israel doesn’t have the cards. They are dependant on U.S. aid and if the U.S. cuts off that aid, Israel faces an existential crisis (an actual one, not the pretend one the Israeli government always trots out any time it wants to treat its neighbours like untermensch).

Thanks to Israel’s self-inflicted reputational damage, Congress is unlikely to get in the way of this political hardball. Per Rule No. 1 the GOP is just a bunch of sheep following their führer. Oh, the odd GOPig here and there will stand by Israel… and then proceed to be on the receiving end of that famous one-way loyalty of which I just wrote. The remainder will forget their loyalty to Israel approximately as quickly as they forgot their loyalty to free trade. Meanwhile, support for Israel is deeply underwater amongst Democratic voters. Sure, a few of the most diehard “Israel can do no wrong” crowd in the Democratic party will stand by Israel, but the majority probably won’t. Simple politics.

As I wrote two years ago: Reputation is just touchy-feely stuff that doesn’t much matter… until, suddenly, it does. Looks like that suddenly part is about to start happening.

Most Anti-Trumpers Have No Idea of What’s Coming

Published at 11:43 on 28 May 2026

I really think they don’t. At least 90% of the anti-Trump crowd in the USA is positively giddy about how low Trump is in the polls.

What they don’t get is that they are no longer in the Republic they have spent most of their lives in. Such poll numbers used to mean something. Now, alas, they mean far less. The Republicans are going to try and steal the election, and they are going to have far more success at doing so than many think possible.

Oh, the GOP will probably still lose their majority in the House of Representatives, but not by much. That narrow majority, coupled with most Democrats not believing in anything, save for the principle of never standing firmly for anything, and the myth of American exceptionalism enabling widespread denial, means not much will change. And I would not be surprised if the GOP holds the Senate.

At that point, my hope is that for many in Middle America, the stench of the rotting corpse will be undeniable, and things might start to get interesting (think resistance like what happened in Minneapolis, but on a national scale).

This Is Not a Pandemic

Published at 15:29 on 13 May 2026

It is scary that hantavirus is transmitting from human to human, and not via intermediate rodent hosts as is typical. But it is not a new development. The strain detected occurs in South America, where it transmits from human to human from time to time. Such it has been for a long time, and it hasn’t turned into a global (or even a regional) pandemic. The cruise began in Argentina, so it is obvious how its passengers originally became exposed. It spread like it did because a cruise ship concentrates a lot of people into a small space.

When the experts claim this is not going to turn into a pandemic, they are correct.

The Trump-Vatican Spat

Published at 20:05 on 17 April 2026

Trump is ending up on the wrong side of the Catholic Church hierarchy. Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, has issued multiple thinly-veiled criticisms of the Trump Regime’s policies, and Trump is increasingly unhappy (and vocally so) about it.

In the last 50 years, the track record of regimes that ended up prominently on the Vatican’s wrong side is, let us say, not precisely great. Most famously, of course, is the Soviet regime and its system of satellite states in eastern and central Europe. It all started with the emergence of Solidarność within about a year of the new Pope’s return visit to his homeland.

Pope John Paul II (and the Catholic Church in general) are cast in the popular view as figures of the Right for their role in undermining a nominally socialist system, and for their traditionalist views on the role and rights of women, the family, and homosexuality. It’s not so simple. Yes, those views exist, no doubt about it.

But Catholic social teaching has also long been critical of unbridled free-market capitalism. This goes way back. Literally back to Jesus Christ. The Gospels are full of messages of sympathy for the poor, the foreigner, and the less fortunate in general. That same “conservative” John Paul II wrote the following as a young cleric:

Necessarily demands brotherhood from people, without which the communal possession of goods seems impossible. This brotherhood is nothing else but the Christian idea of social love. Thus, in this way, the ideal of social love as the zenith of Christian ethical teaching converges with the communist ideal at its peak, when it comes to the realization of this ideal in the area of possessing material goods by people. Because of that when choosing between ideals, the Church must choose the communist ideal over the principle of private property.

And later, as pope:

Catholic social doctrine is not a surrogate for capitalism. In fact, although decisively condemning “socialism,” the church, since Leo XIII’s Rerum Novarum, has always distanced itself from capitalistic ideology, holding it responsible for grave social injustices. In Quadragesimo Anno Pius XI, for his part, used clear and strong words to stigmatize the international imperialism of money.

The latter quote, by the way, was spoken in Soviet-occupied Latvia in 1993. Even when criticizing the Soviet empire, John Paul II was careful to distance himself from capitalist orthodoxy.

I am old enough that I was alive and becoming increasingly politically aware when that was happening, and remember how incensed talking heads in the US media generally were when the Pope had the temerity to criticize capitalism. It was one of the things that made me realize the mass media were not nearly so free and impartial as I was told they were. But I digress.

It is not just the brutality of left-wing authoritarianism that John Paul II tangled with, either. He, and local bishops and cardinals, also played key roles in undermining both the Pinochet and Marcos dictatorships. Cardinal Jaime Lachica Sin is in fact widely regarded as one of the leaders of the revolution that toppled the Marcos dictatorship.

Of particular importance is that all these regimes fell, and in relatively short order (it didn’t take multiple decades).

My point here is not to gloss over or deny the conservative aspects of Catholic teaching. Those exist and are very real. My point is that Catholic teaching is more than just that. It aligns neatly with neither the political Right nor the political Left in the modern context. It is the result of a two-millennia old faith tradition, and an organization that sees itself as the custodian of that tradition, and not a creature of current sentiments.

I would also have to say that the Catholic Church’s less than stellar record in dealing with 20th century fascism (and remorse over the same) probably has something to do with it. It started with the Holy See signing the Lateran Treaty with the Mussolini regime. That particular treaty resolved a lot of ambiguity about the role of the pope in modern Europe (it created the Vatican City as an independent microstate), and is widely regarded as one of Mussolini’s few good accomplishments. Because of how well collaborating with the fascist regime in Italy turned out, the Vatican then chose to cut a deal with the fascist regime in Germany. The icing on the cake was Vatican’s complicity in setting up the ratlines that helped many Nazi war criminals escape justice.

It is thus reasonable to suspect that guilt for past misdeeds is part of the current willingness to criticize authoritarianism. Ultimately, though, that is a moot point. However that willingness emerged, it is there, it is deep-seated, and it has a past track record of success.

In this light, I suggest that the current spat between the Trump Regime and the Catholic Church is probably a good sign that the days of the former are in all likelihood limited.

How This Probably Ends

Published at 22:11 on 31 March 2026

I will start with a disclaimer: Trump can be famously unpredictable, and in this situation he is particularly so. So it may well end differently. But, I still think the most likely resolution is that Trump gives up without effecting regime change in Iran. He will of course in all likelihood declare victory, but the Islamic Republic will still exist and may even be allowed to persist in collecting tolls from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Even in the former case, this will constitute a win for Iran, because all Iran had to do to win was to survive the onslaught from a vastly more powerful aggressor (actually, from two aggressors, one of them a superpower). Such is the nature of asymmetric conflict.

It will particularly be a win for Iran if they get away with extracting tolls indefinitely, as the war started without Iran having this power. Sure, Iran will have paid a terrible price in lost lives and destroyed infrastructure, but it will in this case emerge with more, not less, power and influence as a result of the war. By any reasonable definition, “emerge with more power and influence” defines the party considered the victor.

Correspondingly, the USA will in all likelihood emerge with less power and influence, as a result of alienating both its allies and the world community by launching an ill-planned and economically disruptive conflict. Trump may well elect to put a cherry on top of the sundae by withdrawing the USA from NATO (an action that technically must require Senate ratification, but the USA is so far gone from the principles of constitutional rule that this doesn’t much matter anymore). If so, this will particularly make it a loss for the USA.

Even if it ends via more protracted process, it still probably ends in a loss for the USA. Again, such is the nature of asymmetric warfare. This is a big part of the reason why no other president save Carter (who launched a very limited operation aimed at liberating the hostages in the US Embassy in Tehran) has opted to attack Iran: the basic asymmetry of any hypothetical conflict has always been strongly in Iran’s favour.

No Tyrants!

Published at 09:43 on 29 March 2026

First, why “no tyrants” and not “no kings?” Because I live in Canada and Canada is an actual monarchy. There are some small-r republicans here (I would be one of them), but overall most people don’t have a big problem with Charles III (and I will readily admit that, unlike Trump, Canada’s king doesn’t make me feel personally threatened).

Anyhow, I was there. Here are some of the better signs I saw:

Of note were the Iranian flags, or should I say flags and graphics based on same:

None of those are flags of either the old monarchy or the Islamic republic. They merely make use of the green/white/red background which is common to both. (If you’re curious about “women, life, freedom” it is the English translation of a common protest slogan in Iran.) That’s a sentiment I can get behind: neither the current order, nor the one it replaced, is what is best for the people of Iran.

Some friends of mine are dismissive of these protests, because not enough of a break is being made with the status quo fast enough. I both agree and disagree with this sentiment. Sure, I’d like to see more radical consciousness, but such widespread consciousness currently does not exist, and the process by which such consciousness emerges historically takes time. Ultimately, though, that enough people are upset enough about what is going on in the USA to take it to the streets in numbers this large is a positive sign.

I think East Coast It Notes (facebook, reddit, instagram) got it right:

Where from here? As I have written before I think the fascists are going to cheat in the coming election, and have far more success at doing so than is commonly believed possible. At that point, things might really start to get interesting. If they do, the status quo could change surprisingly rapidly. That is the nature of tipping points: they happen suddenly.

Or perhaps not.

The war will probably continue to go badly so long as Trump keeps it going (and, being surrounded by yes men, he just might). It may continue to go badly even if Trump decides to end it. Because, to paraphrase former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, the enemy always gets a vote. If Iran is having a lot of success humiliating the USA, they may just opt to keep the humiliation going. (Sure, a terrible cost is being imposed on the Iranian people, but that government has amply demonstrated its willingness and ability to impose such costs.)

Either way, at that point, state and local Republicans, who are not surrounded by yes men to the degree that Trump is, may by Election Day be able to read the writing on the wall: either they sit on their hands, run a fair election, let the GOP lose, and trigger a gradual and lesser change, or they risk a sudden and more personally perilous period of change. Again, the enemy always gets a vote.

What happens, in other words, depends to a very large degree on current events, which the relatively small number of us political leftists for the most part do not control.

Anyhow, protests like the ones we just saw are far from useless. If they’re not your thing, I can understand. Consider a side quest or two.

Will Trump Use Nuclear Weapons in Iran?

Published at 21:59 on 19 March 2026

He might. He’s a norm-breaker, who views himself exempt from the norms others must follow. Plus, the war is likely to continue not going well for his regime, inspiring frustration on his part. Cornered, he might resort to desperate measures.

He would warn first. This is just a personal judgement on my part. I think he would threaten to use them before actually pulling the nuclear trigger. It seems in character, plus it offers the hope of scoring a win on bluster alone, which I think he would regard as a huge personal win. But, it probably wouldn’t work, since I view Iran as highly likely to call his bluff.

So, not much grounds for immediate worry, but if the nuclear sabre-rattling commences, it will be time to be very concerned.

Remember, the Doomesday scenario in Threads started with nuclear weapons being used in an escalating conflict in Iran.

Will Chickens Come Home to Roost?

Published at 07:49 on 11 March 2026

I couldn’t figure out how to work this into my previous piece, so I figured I’d post it separately.

Anyhow, there is a very real risk that Iran may well decide to bring the war home to the U.S.A. via unconventional means. In other words, terrorism.

This would be a risky strategy for Iran because it might not weaken U.S. resolve (which, conveniently for Iran, is already on the low side) the way they may think it might. Most of the world knows — correctly — that the U.S. voting public is not exactly known for its great knowledge of the world outside their own national borders. (This is probably deliberate on the part of the U.S. ruling class, as enables pro-empire politicians to win elections they otherwise would not, but I digress.) Anyhow, this means that if the attacks come, they may well be perceived as random acts depravity instead of the easy-to-anticipate retribution they actually are.

That same populace is also not known, contrary to popular mythology, for its great love of freedom or its distrust of government power. The U.S.A. has for decades been the world’s number one jailer of its own people. Questioning this is regarded, within the U.S. political spectrum, as a distinctly odd minority position. We have, in other words, a culturally meek and submissive people, desirous of order imposed from above, and averse to independent thought: in short, the sort well-primed to submit to the authority of a dictator. (There is a gun culture and a lot of role playing around it that runs directly counter to this, but its largely hollow and performative nature is best exhibited by how the vast preponderance of its members are loyal devotees of Trump.) This in fact explains a lot of how Trump has been able to be successful and accepted as a politician.

So Trump may well get to pull a Hitler, declare an emergency in response to the attacks, and get to be the dictator he has always dreamed of being, all with surprisingly little resistance. Or perhaps not — it’s not as of the US/Israel war against Iran is little known amongst the public.

My point is mainly that we don’t know. A wave of retaliatory attacks may well come, and they could just as easily serve to solidify fascist rule as they could to undermine it.