Blackcap Blog

Published at 08:43 on 10 September 2025

Russia

Russia probably did not deliberately attack Poland. This is clear once one looks at a map. Russia directly borders Latvia, Estonia, and Finland, yet no Russian drones violated those NATO members’ air spaces. If it was a deliberate and calculated test of NATO, one would expect at least some attacks there. The above claim is also clear when one considers Ukraine. Russia has greatly escalated attacks against Ukraine in recent days. Thus, the most logical explanation is that some of those attacks went wide and happened to collaterally damage Poland. Now, this is still a serious matter, and still an escalation of tensions, but it does not appear to be the sort of deliberate attack some are painting it as.

It is difficult to sanction Russia more. This is simply because Russia is already quite comprehensively sanctioned. Moreover, sanctions are not as effective as many seem to believe they are. Iraq survived a punishing sanctions regime for years until Saddam Hussein was overthrown (and the overthrow happened via invasion and occupation, not sanctions). Apartheid-era South Africa also survived sanctions for years, as did Rhodesia. Sure, it would be nice if it were possible to exert significant additional pressure on Russia simply by tightening sanctions, but this is unlikely to be the case.

Israel

Israel certainly attacked Qatar deliberately. There really can be no debate about this; even Israel itself has admitted the attack was deliberate. Case closed.

It is trivially easy to sanction Israel more. This is simply because Israel is currently being sanctioned very little. Oh, sure, Israel has its diehard enemies who have been sanctioning it for decades, but those sanctions are inconsequential, being as they are the policies of economic pipsqueaks. Economically important partners like the EU currently do a lot of open trade and cultural exchange with Israel. There is ample room to impose significant additional pain on Israel via sanctions.