Trump Says “Jump,” Canada Asks “How High?”
Published at 17:17 on 29 November 2024
Really Now, You Didn’t See This Coming?
I don’t think Trudeau did. Pathetic, utterly pathetic. I mean, come on now: the polls showed this to be a close election for like months until Biden’s campaign self-immolated in the wake of the debate. At that point, the odds clearly favoured Trump. Biden dropping out and Harris jumping in evened those odds back up, but still: for months it was either a draw or distinctly in Trump’s favour.
As such, it was obvious that Trump could well win. And if he won, it was likely that he would do, well, basically what he is doing right now. Trudeau should have met months ago (in a low key fashion, possibly online) with the provincial premiers to start sketching out a response for this very easily foreseeable scenario.
Instead, the whole rushed, hair-on-fire nature of this response points out to it being a complete surprise to Canada’s ruling elite. These people should not be taken seriously when they profess to be experts at leadership.
Go ahead Punk, Make My Day
OK, it would be highly irresponsible for the PM to say that, but if he has even half a brain (dubious, see above), he should at least be thinking it. A famous economist (I forget who) once quipped that the essence of a trade war was both parties competing to do themselves damage. Which is not to say 25% tariffs on just about everything wouldn’t hurt Canada. Of course they would. The rub is, they would also hurt the USA. A lot.
So, for making this threat, Trump is either bluffing, an idiot, or both. It has to be seen as more of a negotiating ploy than a serious proposal. If it is a serious proposal, the economic harm it does to the USA is likely to be part of the backlash that erupts against Trump.
The logical way to use this fact is, again, not via public statement. Rather, use it implicitly at the negotiating table. “Such tariffs might hurt President Trump domestically by causing economic problems inside the USA. Surely his administration wants to come to an amicable resolution with Canada and avoid that risk?”
Both the Liberals and the Conservatives Suck
None of them saw this coming. The Liberals, because (like in most countries) the left in Canada has ceded thinking about threats from abroad to the right. The Conservatives, because Trump is a threat from the right and it is ideologically inconvenient for them to think their own side of the spectrum could represent a threat.
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is one of the few who seem to have been thinking about the implications of a second Trump term well in advance. Unfortunately, his office is at the provincial level, not the national one. Now, a given Canadian province has a louder voice than a given US state (for the simple reason that there are fewer provinces), but still, it is a disadvantage that Kinew is not a federal politician.
Hopefully, his foresight (in the midst of a crowd that lacked same) will by default give him greater influence. We shall see.