Blackcap Blog

Published at 10:26 on 2 May 2024

I mean, really now, what did they expect to happen on campuses?

1. Israel takes it to the Nth level with disproportionate retaliation, rising to levels that many consider genocidal (of which ample evidence now exists).
2. The iron triangle that is the US/Israel alliance remains basically unquestioned. Ukraine may struggle for military aid, but never Israel.
3. The taboo against criticizing Israel does suffer some damage.
4. But only some. Campus demonstrations against what Israel is doing are still repressed harshly.

Per the latter, choose to escalate, and the other side then also chooses escalation. Surprise, surprise. Encampments become building occupations.

And no, this is not a defence of everything that has been done by the protestors. There has been actual anti-Semitic rhetoric. There have been pro-Hamas statements. There has been gratuitous vandalism of campus property. Such things are bad.

But keep some perspective here. A building at Columbia University is not as important as the US Capitol. While the last election was not stolen from Trump, Gaza is actually suffering. Outrage against a relatively unimportant target, one that does not threaten the basic nature of an open, democratic society, motivated by an actual grievance, is rather different from wanting to kill the Vice-President and create a fascist state because of an imagined grievance.

Much is starting to be said about the harm the demonstrations do. And they do harm Biden. Biden now has the black mark of domestic unrest against him, and such black marks count in the calculus of whether or not a president will be reelected.

Per the latter, the only real question is whether or not the unrest will become “sustained.” My money is on no. The reason is the venue and timing: on university campuses, in late spring. Classes are about to let out. That will let the air out of the protests. Moreover, it looks like a deal between Israel and Hamas might be in the works. If such a deal is cut, the conflict will de-escalate, and be a distant memory by Election Day, since (like it or not) most Americans don’t give a shit about foreign policy and couldn’t even point to Israel/Palestine on a map, even if their lives depended on it.

What’s being overlooked is the good the protests accomplish. What’s being done in Gaza is pretty serious, and it is being done in no small part with US tax dollars. People should be upset! There should be unrest! That there is, is a sign of a healthier society than one that would passively accept such atrocities.

Practically, the unrest, plus the principle that unrest harms an incumbent, helps butter Biden’s toast on the side of pushing Israel to cut a deal with Hamas to end the immediate hostilities. Absent such a thing, there would only be the Establishment politics maxim of “thou shalt never criticize Israel or deviate from supporting Israel 100%” at play.