Trump May Win (But Probably Won’t)

Published at 08:15 on 22 July 2016

Trump’s big speech last night was full of lies and half-truths, but:

  • That’s only to be expected in a major party political speech, particularly in a right-wing candidate’s speech, and especially in a Trump speech.
  • It was, regardless of truth value, very polished and on-message.
  • As such, the guy has a real chance of winning if he stays on that message.

However, that final point is an extremely big if. Donald Trump has a well-established reputation of having very little self-control over what he says. I doubt the leopard can change his spots.

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