China Is Key
Published at 09:11 on 29 January 2025
China is probably key to halting this global rise in fascism. When will the world realize it? When will China realize it?
I think, in some sense, China already has realized it, but has chosen to word it all very diplomatically… for now. They don’t want to pick fights needlessly or prematurely.
Yes, China is a nasty dictatorship, with approximately zero interest in directly advancing the cause of freedom. But, per the link in the previous paragraph, it is a dictatorship that values stability and the international system, which is more than one can say for today’s USA. Plus, like every nation, China wants greater power and influence for itself.
The part about valuing stability and an international framework is important. It gives other nations something more than “USA #1, suck it, losers!” does. Sure, China is going to advocate an international framework rigged to China’s advantage. But it’s still a framework. There will still be commitment to it. This is still better for the rest of the world.
As such, good old-fashioned self-interest will motivate most of the rest of the world to prefer the Chinese option. This is precisely the sort of soft power that for decades led nations to opt for a framework dominated by the USA, despite that framework being rigged to the USA’s advantage.
In short: China understands soft power. The USA no longer does. This can be expected to work in China’s favour over the long run.
The old American empire is not coming back, either. U.S. allies could wave off Trump I as a one-off anomaly; Trump himself didn’t have any idea how powerful the presidency was, or have a very good idea of what to do with that power. Trump II knows both, and so far as U.S. allies go, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
Plus, so far as the rest of the world goes, it always makes sense to not put all of one’s eggs in a single basket. In a world with two roughly comparable major powers (which is what it will soon be), national freedom of action is often best maximized by playing one power off another.
Europe is slowly getting over its post-World War II aversion to power, but too slowly to become the major power it might be any time soon. Plus, Europe has its own fascism problem.
So, for the medium term, China versus the USA it is. And China probably has the upper hand.