Prediction: Mistrial or Acquittal

Published at 09:13 on 29 May 2024

Why? Simple arithmetic.

The USA is about ⅓ fascist (that is the rough fraction of diehard Trumpers), and it only takes a single fascist on the jury to block conviction. In Manhattan, the statistics are not quite so dismal: about 12% voted for Trump in the last election. Let’s be generous and assume some of those did so while holding their noses and that the true measure of the hardcore fascist base is half that.

In other words, Manhattan is 6% fascist. Or, looking at it from a glass half-full point of view, 94% non-fascist. But here’s the rub: the odds of all 12 jurors being non-fascist are 0.94¹² or about 48%. In other words, odds are better than even that there is at least one fascist on the jury.

And no fascist will vote against their führer.

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