The Odds of a Prolonged Shutdown Just Went Way Up
Published at 19:58 on 3 October 2023
McCarthy compromised to avoid a shutdown, and just was punished for it by being the first Speaker of the House in history to get fired. This makes it highly unlikely that whomever his replacement is will be interested in following in his footsteps.
The Republicans could have avoided this fate if they showed continued interest in compromising and cutting deals. The Democrats actually made some overtures in this direction, but McCarthy chose to snub them. So here we are.
Historically, these sort of antics have not turned out well for Republicans. If the Democrats are at least halfway savvy (not a given, sadly), they will now be preparing a messaging campaign painting the other party as irresponsible and incapable of governing.
Also expect a prolonged process for selecting a new permanent speaker. It took McCarthy fifteen votes to secure his speakership in this Congress. There is no reason to believe that his successor will have a significantly easier job of it.