It Gets Real when Russia Turns off the Gas
Published at 22:30 on 7 March 2022
Europe is so addicted to Russian oil and gas, and Russia is so addicted to their last significant remaining export industry, that there is still a booming trade in fossil fuel exports from Russia to the rest of Europe. Yes, now, even with the sanctions.
That’s unlikely to last. Eventually, one side will decide to punish the other by cutting the flow off. Odds may well favour it being Russia that turns the taps off, for the simple reason that their authoritarian system means public opinion matters less.
Then comes the time of real sacrifice, when it actually will feel like a war. In World Wars I and II, there was widespread rationing in all belligerent nations. That has not been the case in the West for any conflict since.
Those of us in North America will be less profoundly affected, but we will still be affected. It is a global market, so a loss of supply anywhere will be reflected everywhere.
At that point, the question will be whether the public will be willing to put up with the sacrifice. How difficult it was to get people to cooperate during the COVID pandemic does not instill much optimism here. Perhaps this time will be different, but that is merely a vague hope.
And yes, that question applies in Russia, too. Even authoritarian systems depend ultimately on public support, and a sudden decline in the standard of living is an effective way to lose that support. Just ask General Suharto.