Blackcap Blog

Published at 08:36 on 4 October 2020

Some thoughts, in no particular order:

• • It is no surprise, given what we know of how the virus is spread and how little Trump believes in taking precautions against it.
  • That Trump has persistently refused to take such precautions undercuts his own claim of being a germophobe, a claim that he famously used in an attempt to delegitimize the alleged existence of the pee tape.
  • Trump has multiple risk factors for the disease, particularly age and obesity.
  • Trump is already experiencing symptoms, which were profound enough for him to be hospitalized. Therefore he is not amongst the lucky subset that cruise through an infection with no or only very mild symptoms.
  • Despite the secrecy surrounding his condition (and the resulting uncertainty), Trump does not appear to be seriously ill at the present time, given how he is still appearing in videos.
  • The first week is usually not the worst in severe cases, so while he may eventually prove to only have a relatively mild case, only after a week or two will it be safe to conclude this.
  • Even severe cases now typically survive, due to advances in caring for the disease. Plus, Trump has access to the best care available. Therefore he will probably survive.
  • Severe cases are still typically lengthy and incapacitating. Therefore a period of such incapacitation, where Pence has to assume presidential duties, is a very real possibility.
  • I do not think it will be possible to predict in detail how any of the above will affect the campaign, other than it will certainly affect it.