Two countries, two coup attempts by the supporters of a recently-defeated right wing president. Both featured police officers standing idly by and even welcoming the insurrectionists. Both featured well-heeled right-wingers providing financial and logistical support.
Both countries now have people who see themselves as “patriots” shocked, shocked that in the eyes of the law they are accused criminals, and being treated accordingly.
But in only one of those two countries are top law-enforcement officials placed under arrest pending investigation of why some cops stood idly by. In only one of them are capitalists being investigated for their roles in the conspiracy.
The difference is revealing, and it is why I am not optimistic about the long-term prospects for democracy in the USA. To date, the USA’s response has been weaker than the Weimar Republic’s one to the Beer Hall Putsch. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
It is unlikely to make much of a difference. Explaining why is going to leave me feeling a lot like Captain Obvious, but ignoring what should be obvious is what got us here in the first place, so here goes.
The reason is quite simple, it fails to prioritize the number one reason why so many are homeless: because they can’t afford to pay the rent. Why can’t people afford to pay the rent? It’s obvious, isn’t it?
Price too high. It’s the reason why anything becomes unaffordable. Duh!
And why are prices too high? The same reason prices of anything get too high: because demand is outstripping supply. And why has demand outstripped supply?
To answer that one, talk to those whose job it is to increase housing supply: builders and developers. Ask them why they are not building more, when there is such a need for more. In places like Seattle and San Francisco, where the homelessness problem (and high rents) are the worst, the answer you get will always feature regulations.
It typically takes years for new housing to be approved. During these years, developers are holding a parcel of land (at a loss because they have to pay taxes on it), and paying legal experts (again, at a loss) to shepherd the permitting and approval processes through. All these are costs that must be reimbursed for a project to pan out. The easiest way to get them back is to ignore the crisis in affordable housing and build luxury units which have a higher return.
What can get approved, is often subject to extreme restrictions on how dense it can be, i.e. how many units you can create on a given parcel of land. Since urban land is expensive, the easiest way to hold down cost per unit is to minimize land per unit, i.e. build denser. Yet builders can’t do that. Yet another incentive to build only luxury housing that goes for a high price per unit.
This all makes me sound like a Libertarian Party member, blaming it all on government for getting in the way of private enterprise solving a problem. Well, in this particular case, I’ve thought a lot about it, and looked a lot into it, and it mostly is the government getting in the way of private enterprise solving a problem.
To see how much better it could be if only local governments stopped actively being part of the problem, you only have to look to Japan, where the national government has a big role in setting zoning policies, and one of its principles is to prevent local governments (who still have an important role to play there) from being able to restrict the creation of housing supply.
And, surprise surprise, not getting in the way of supply matching demand works. The world’s largest city, Tokyo, has rents comparable to Miami and way less expensive than US cities like San Francisco and New York. Also note that, within Japan, Tokyo is known for being an expensive city.
Now, the USA can’t simply import housing policy from Japan, which has a significantly different government structure. But there is still plenty of room for the Feds to do significantly more strong-arming of state and local governments: “Oh, you would like the top level of Federal aid for your highway and transit projects? Sorry, we find your housing policies too restrictive to qualify. Fix those and get back to us.”
Now, to be fair, the Biden plan does make some mention of this:
Encourage states and cities to review and update their zoning laws and policies to include more land for multiple units (like multifamily housing), offer density bonuses to developers, ease height and density restrictions, create land banks and streamline the permitting and approval process for missing-middle housing types, such as Accessory Dwelling Units.
The problem is, that is buried in the middle of a list on page 44, and the wording is weak sauce. Local governments restricting the creation of housing supply is such a huge part of the problem as to warrant its own section or at least subsection, and to use terminology stronger than encourage (strongly encourage, mandate, or even compel would be better).
And yes, there is certainly room for most of the other stuff that plan mentions. I said above that the housing crisis mostly is a result of government regulations restricting the creation of supply. Mostly is not entirely. The homeless will still need specific, targeted help.
But focusing almost exclusively on that sort of help while almost completely ignoring the primary cause is a bit like worrying a lot about the chipped paint in a room while your home’s foundation is crumbling.
The January 6th Committee report calls for Congress to bar Trump from office. Of course it does, now that Congress is going into recess before the new Congress, with a Fascist Party House majority, comes into session. This is so very much not a coincidence.
This is the same committee that deliberately scheduled “subpoenas” to come due before a holiday weekend and hopefully swept under a rug, after all. The “accountability” for that is as laughable as the same for Trump: they propose that Congress slap lawmakers gently on the wrist for it. That’s not happening, either, for the same reason as above.
It’s a show, designed for public consumption, to make it seem as if the system is interested in holding the most powerful accountable.
Congress could prove me wrong by convening a special session, but they won’t. Wait and see.
DeSantis loses to whatever Democrat (hopefully not Biden, but more on that later) runs against him.
Why not? Mainly age. Biden was already the oldest presidential candidate ever last time. I appreciate that he’s done better than anticipated, but he’s still not getting any younger and I think the Democrats can manage better (and probably doing a better job of inspiring voter enthusiasm) than running an octogenarian who strongly hinted when he ran last time that he would only serve one term.
Time to step aside and let a new generation serve. Someone like Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, perhaps.
Already the knives are coming out for Trump in the GOP, with no shortage of suggestions that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (more later on what his victory in the Florida gubernatorial race says)…
DeSantis ran for governor against Charlie Crist, a man who previously served as Governor of Florida… as a Republican. He ran a typical, DNC-approved, milquetoast Mr. Nice Guy campaign, trying to run to the center and make a rational appeal to the supposed policy preferences of voters. And he lost. Big.
Contrast with Pennsylvania. In the Democratic Party primary, there were two candidates. The party establishment’s favourite was Conor Lamb, who ran a standard Mr. Nice Guy campaign. There was plenty of hand-wringing amongst that establishment when John Fetterman, who ran a scrappier and more populist campaign, prevailed in the primary. Yet Fetterman won, and won despite having his clock cleaned in a debate while still in recovery from a stroke he suffered.
DeSantis’ landslide illustrates just how poorly the traditional Democratic Party campaign strategy works, and just how out of touch with political reality it is.
Really, this is so much not a surprise. This is Trump we are talking about. He’s always been a legend in his own mind. Anything bad that happens is always someone else’s fault — never his.
Of course he chose to run. This is the most predictable story since the sun rising this morning.
The dust has yet to fully settle on the midterm elections, but what we do know is that the standard shellacking of the in-party did not happen this time. Even Lindsey Graham has openly said so.
Already the knives are coming out for Trump in the GOP, with no shortage of suggestions that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (more later on what his victory in the Florida gubernatorial race says) would make a better standard-bearer for their party. (As unlikable as I find DeSantis, he’s still better than Trump.)
But here’s the thing: I have thought there would be such tipping points many times before, most recently after the failed coup attempt on January 6th. Every time, it did not happen. The GOP kissed and made up with Trump. Maybe this time is different, but I can’t get my hopes up.
Suppose for sake of argument, it actually is different this time. Then what?
First Trump is still Trump. He’s never had the emotional maturity to engage in honest self-assessment before, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that he has suddenly and for no explicable reason acquired this ability. Trump never thinks he is anything but the greatest ever. He never thinks anything is his fault.
If Trump doesn’t get the GOP presidential nomination in 2024, he will say it is because the whole process is rigged and it was unfairly stolen from him. Then he will run as an independent in all 50 states. His base of fanatical, sheep-like followers will vote for him and not the GOP.
Suppose that’s only 5 to 10 percent of the GOP. That’s still enough to doom them. DeSantis loses to whatever Democrat (hopefully not Biden, but more on that later) runs against him.
At that that point, the earliest the GOP can win back the White House is 2028. By then, Trump will either be dead or in the old folks’ home. For that matter, so will a significant chunk of his base, who leans to an older demographic. Those still alive will have the same short memory that most Americans have, and will have mostly forgotten about Trump.
As such, 2028 will be the first year the GOP can realistically hope to win back the White House. Even if they do, it will be with a more garden-variety conservative who does not pose such an existential threat to political democracy.
But, to reiterate, this only happens if the knives stay out for Trump. Also, GOP strategists have no doubt run just this scenario through their heads, and don’t much like the idea of waiting until 2028 to get the White House back. So the temptation to kiss and make up with Trump will be very real.
On the other hand, they just might go through with dumping Trump. Rage and the desire for revenge are very real things.
So yes, this might be the beginning of the end. But, to reiterate, I can’t get my hopes up.
Establishment pundits are starting to acknowledge that the fact that the USA has a powerful, politically viable fascist party that is sympathetic to the cause of its fellow fascists in Russia could be Putin’s ace in the hole. This was always obvious, and I believe I mentioned it at one point, but I figured it deserved another short mention.
Odds disfavor a military whose official history glorifies itself from being able to honestly assess how a legacy of intervention in the Western Hemisphere, including in Haiti itself, presents serious obstacles when it comes to being trusted by the Haitians.
Odds get even worse when it comes to political maneuvering in Congress that will end up pressuring the military, and political maneuvering in an electorate (which will end up pressuring Congress) that understands history even worse than those in Congress and the military do.
“Stabilize Haiti” is a vague mission with no clear endgame. Any invading US troops will be asked to perform missions whose goals are increasingly implausible over time. It will turn into a quagmire that builds upon the already significant distrust of the United States in the Western Hemisphere and adds to it.
Rule No. 2: If You Ignore Rule No. 1, Keep It Simple and Get Out Fast
This is mentioned because the chattering classes are already cranking up their propaganda mills in favor of ignoring Rule No. 1, which is as a result likely to be ignored.
Don’t set out to “stabilize Haiti.” Set out to, for example, secure the port from the gangs stopping it from being used to import food and other needed items. When you accomplish that, declare your mission has been accomplished, congratulate yourself, and get out.
Rule No. 3: I Told You So
Because, face it, odds favor both Rules Nos. 1 and 2 being ignored.
Biden’s speech was necessary. It wasn’t the speech I would give about the current situation, of course, but Biden is in a vastly different situation than I am in and his politics are not mine. That said, the basics were correct: the coming election is a choice between autocracy and democracy.
The question is: do enough Americans care enough about democracy? To paraphrase what I wrote in an earlier article, if we have a fascism-friendly public, then fascism becomes basically inevitable. I chose the term “fascism-friendly” deliberately; it is not necessary for the public to be majority fascist. All that is necessary is for enough of the public to be friendly to the idea of maybe giving fascism a little whirl and seeing how it goes.
Of course, the very concept that fascism can be given a little whirl is fatally flawed: once fascists get power, they don’t easily give it up. Then the regrets kick in, but it is too late.
