If his 3-minute campaign kickoff video is any indication, Biden looks like a disaster in the making. I am serious. Just consider:
- He’s apparently trying to run as the Not Trump candidate. There is no other message in that video. None.
- Hillary ran as the Not Trump candidate—and lost to Trump.
- A variety of Italians ran as the Not Berlusconi candidate when Berlusconi was PM—and lost.
- A variety of Venezuelans ran as the Not Chávez candidate—and lost.
- An opposition victory only happened in Venezuela when the opposition ran as something more than just the Not the Current Guy in Power candidate.
- By then it was too late; opposition control of congress did not matter because Venezuela was already a dictatorship.
- The opposition never managed to win an election on their own in Italy; the E.U. forced Berlusconi out by threatening to not bail out Italy’s debts unless he resigned.
Be very careful, Democrats: this is not a test, and the consequences of getting this one wrong could be truly dire.
Update: I’ve taken a look at his campaign web site, and it’s better than his kickoff speech led me to believe it was (it’s not nearly so Trump-obsessed, and it mentions stuff about “rebuilding the middle class”). Yes, the latter isn’t terribly class-conscious, but dream on: you never were going to get that from Mr. Establishment in the first place. At least he’s putting forth positive reasons to vote for him. The question is, can he stay on that message, or will he continue to be Trump-obsessed in his speeches to the point of distracting from it?