Biden is the Most Likely Nominee
Published at 11:40 on 3 March 2020
Nate Silver has run five scenarios of what might happen today, based on the best-available current polling data. Of particular interest are the following points:
- Three of the five show Biden emerging with a delegate lead (one shows Sanders with a delegate lead, and one basically shows a tie).
- Even the two scenarios in which Biden does not have a clear delegate lead, the sum total of delegates for moderate candidates exceeds that for the progressive candidates.
A few days ago, it looked like Sanders was set to have a big day today. Now, not so much.
The most likely outcome is a convention where nobody gets a majority of the delegates, and the superdelegates give the nomination to Biden, because he has a plurality. Bernie will, in other words, probably get what he’s been pleading for, but he will not be the beneficiary of it.