Blackcap Blog

Published at 10:59 on 12 April 2018

First, Trump probably will can Mueller. It would be entirely in character for him to do so, after all:

• Trump is a child of privilege, who has never been made to suffer consequences for any misdeed he has done. First his father’s wealth, then his own (mostly inherited from his father) have seen to that.
• He’s a complete authoritarian, who cut his teeth on in the fascist microstate that is the capitalist corporation, and who has little or no appreciation for any more-democratic alternatives to fascism.
• He has all the intellectual sophistication of a petulant preschooler, so is unwilling or unable to consider the consequences of his actions.
• Many of the individuals who surrounded him and helped talk sense into him have now departed.
• Before those individuals departed, it is known Trump tried to fire Mueller. He was persuaded to not do so after it was explained how this would likely be against his best interest in the long run.

So, it’s all but inevitable. Then what? That’s the big question.

First, the Republicans are much more captive to the White House than they were in the Nixon years. Those were a far more bipartisan time than ours, as evidenced by Nixon’s landslide victories; such victories would not have been possible without a lot of Democrats crossing party lines to vote for Nixon. So that makes an impeachment threat much less plausible than it was for Nixon.

But it’s not quite so simple. It’s looking more and more like there’s a so-called “blue wave” coming. Sooner or later, the rats will start deserting the sinking ship of Trumpism, preferring to save their own careers over the now-lost cause of saving their party’s majority. But it may take until they lose badly this November for that to happen.

Moreover, if the Democrats take just the House of Representatives, impeachment still becomes much more likely. The House will be able to launch its own investigation, which will be run entirely by the legislative branch, and thus be entirely outside the control of the executive one. They’ll be able to dig up dirt on Trump then make it public in order to shame the Senate into convicting the president and removing him from office.

Of course, this is still the same Democratic Party that let Bush basically get away with the Iraq War we’re talking about, so it must be kept in mind that there’s no guarantee of anything happening unless the Democrats are forced by pressure from below to make things happen. That makes widespread protest and disruption of business as usual when the inevitable occurs a necessity.