{"id":6317,"date":"2024-05-29T09:13:18","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T16:13:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/?p=6317"},"modified":"2024-05-29T09:31:37","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T16:31:37","slug":"prediction-mistrial-or-acquittal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/?p=6317","title":{"rendered":"Prediction: Mistrial or Acquittal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Why? Simple arithmetic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The USA is about \u2153 fascist (that is the rough fraction of diehard Trumpers), and it only takes a single fascist on the jury to block conviction. In Manhattan, the statistics are not quite so dismal: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vote.nyc\/page\/election-results-summary-2020\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.vote.nyc\/page\/election-results-summary-2020\">about 12%<\/a> voted for Trump in the last election. Let&#8217;s be generous and assume some of those did so while holding their noses and that the true measure of the hardcore fascist base is half that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, Manhattan is 6% fascist. Or, looking at it from a glass half-full point of view, 94% non-fascist. But here&#8217;s the rub: the odds of all 12 jurors being non-fascist are 0.94\u00b9\u00b2 or about 48%. In other words, odds are better than even that there is at least one fascist on the jury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And no fascist will vote against their f\u00fchrer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why? Simple arithmetic. The USA is about \u2153 fascist (that is the rough fraction of diehard Trumpers), and it only takes a single fascist on the jury to block conviction. In Manhattan, the statistics are not quite so dismal: about 12% voted for Trump in the last election. Let&#8217;s be generous and assume some of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6317"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6317\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6319,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6317\/revisions\/6319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}