{"id":5533,"date":"2022-02-28T07:33:17","date_gmt":"2022-02-28T15:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/?p=5533"},"modified":"2022-02-28T07:35:56","modified_gmt":"2022-02-28T15:35:56","slug":"will-putin-use-nukes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/?p=5533","title":{"rendered":"Will Putin Use Nukes?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Probably not, but the possibility can&#8217;t be simply waved off, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A week ago, my answer would have been a solid NO, for the simple reason that to do so would be insane. Even by the warped <em>weltanschauung<\/em> of a kleptocratic fascist, it just doesn&#8217;t make sense. Kleptocrats can amass <em>far<\/em> more power and luxury in a pre-Armageddon world than they can in a post-Armageddon one. So that means giving up on a vision of a greater Russia that includes Ukraine? So what. You can&#8217;t always get what you want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, I&#8217;m not so sure. First, there&#8217;s been Putin&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/wireStory\/putin-waves-nuclear-sword-confrontation-west-83103191\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/wireStory\/putin-waves-nuclear-sword-confrontation-west-83103191\">recent chilling statement<\/a>. Perhaps more importantly, however, is the full-scale invasion of Ukraine itself. Remember, I predicted this <em>wouldn&#8217;t<\/em> happen, precisely because it would be likely to go poorly for Russia. That Putin chose to do it proves how detached from reality Putin is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Putin that could not see that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was highly unlikely to be the convenient little war he wanted, just might be a Putin that can no longer see there can be no winners in a nuclear war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My hope is that if he tries it, the obvious insanity of the idea will prompt disobedience followed by a coup. But frighteningly, he may indeed try it, and if he does, a coup is not a certainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Probably not, but the possibility can&#8217;t be simply waved off, either. A week ago, my answer would have been a solid NO, for the simple reason that to do so would be insane. Even by the warped weltanschauung of a kleptocratic fascist, it just doesn&#8217;t make sense. Kleptocrats can amass far more power and luxury [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5533"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5533\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5537,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5533\/revisions\/5537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}