{"id":4579,"date":"2020-03-03T11:40:05","date_gmt":"2020-03-03T19:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/?p=4579"},"modified":"2020-03-03T11:45:26","modified_gmt":"2020-03-03T19:45:26","slug":"biden-is-the-most-likely-nominee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/?p=4579","title":{"rendered":"Biden is the Most Likely Nominee"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nate Silver has run <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/five-scenarios-for-how-super-tuesday-could-go\/\">five scenarios<\/a> of what might happen today, based on the best-available current polling data. Of particular interest are the following points:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Three of the five show Biden emerging with a delegate lead (one shows Sanders with a delegate lead, and one basically shows a tie).<\/li>\n<li>Even the two scenarios in which Biden does not have a clear delegate lead, the sum total of delegates for moderate candidates exceeds that for the progressive candidates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A few days ago, it looked like Sanders was set to have a big day today. Now, not so much.<\/p>\n<p>The most likely outcome is a convention where nobody gets a majority of the delegates, and the superdelegates give the nomination to Biden, because he has a plurality. Bernie will, in other words, probably get what he&#8217;s been pleading for, but he will not be the beneficiary of it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nate Silver has run five scenarios of what might happen today, based on the best-available current polling data. Of particular interest are the following points: Three of the five show Biden emerging with a delegate lead (one shows Sanders with a delegate lead, and one basically shows a tie). Even the two scenarios in which [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blackcap.name\/blog\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}